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The future..


2004-01-13 07:44:03 AM
kylix2
Hi,
Imagin it is the year 2008.. (Even earlier?)
Gadgets are coming and they are getting smarter and can store lots of
data. Java ME and MS CF on handhelds are nearing extinction. RAD tools
like Kylix could target these beasts capable of running a Linux x86
kernel. Clustering a few these devils together wirelessly in a grid can
put some of todays fast servers to shame. Desktop computers will be
virtually extinct too.. All we have are Servers and 'handheld gadgets'
with their extendable folding plastic display screens. Servers act
mainly as backup and relay stations.. Your data is always 'on' you.
Where is dotNet? <g>
Lets see what happens.. It's always good to image an alternative.. heheh
siegfried niedinger
 
 

Re:The future..

Quote
Where is dotNet? <g>
That sentence says it all. It seems like Borland management has bet the
farm on .Net. Meanwhile the rest of the world is rapidly adapting Linux as
the desktop and business server of the future. Borland employees should be
here improving Kylix rather then in borland.public.delphi.non-technical
{*word*3} their future on an unproven technology.
 

Re:The future..

"Jeff Undercash" < XXXX@XXXXX.COM >wrote in message
Quote
That sentence says it all. It seems like Borland management has bet the
farm on .Net. Meanwhile the rest of the world is rapidly adapting Linux
as
the desktop and business server of the future. Borland employees should
be
here improving Kylix rather then in borland.public.delphi.non-technical
{*word*3} their future on an unproven technology.

True
 

{smallsort}

Re:The future..

"Jeff Undercash" < XXXX@XXXXX.COM >wrote in message news:4003484a$ XXXX@XXXXX.COM ...
Quote
>Where is dotNet? <g>

That sentence says it all. It seems like Borland management has bet the
farm on .Net. Meanwhile the rest of the world is rapidly adapting Linux as
the desktop and business server of the future. Borland employees should be
here improving Kylix rather then in borland.public.delphi.non-technical
{*word*3} their future on an unproven technology.

You maybe right, or maybe not.
The sensible thing would be for Borland to hedge their bets with
D8 for dotNet and ALSO commit to supporting and improving Kylix,
as well as fixing problems with Delphi for Win32.
But I don't think they have the resources for all of that.
So they had to take a gamble. Where to place their chips?
If you had only enough resources to gamble on 2 out of these 3,
which would you choose? [Rhetorical question]
 

Re:The future..

Edward Benson wrote:
Quote
"Jeff Undercash" < XXXX@XXXXX.COM >wrote in message
news:4003484a$ XXXX@XXXXX.COM ...
>>Where is dotNet? <g>
>
>That sentence says it all. It seems like Borland management has bet the
>farm on .Net. Meanwhile the rest of the world is rapidly adapting Linux
>as
>the desktop and business server of the future. Borland employees should
>be here improving Kylix rather then in
>borland.public.delphi.non-technical {*word*3} their future on an unproven
>technology.
>

You maybe right, or maybe not.

The sensible thing would be for Borland to hedge their bets with
D8 for dotNet and ALSO commit to supporting and improving Kylix,
as well as fixing problems with Delphi for Win32.

But I don't think they have the resources for all of that.

So they had to take a gamble. Where to place their chips?
If you had only enough resources to gamble on 2 out of these 3,
which would you choose? [Rhetorical question]
On where the future truly is, at least for the forseeable future anyways:
(1) Java (2) NET (3) C/C++
That is pretty much where Borland is headed as well. These are the trends
for the forseeable future, folks. Might as well get use to it.
Maketshare 2003 Report (sources Borland Enterprise Report 2003, Giga
Information Group 2003)
Enterprises Using what languages, 2003:
Java 75%
NET 17%
C/C++ 54%
Visual Basic 70%
Delphi :(less than 10%).
These are averages from the two reports. All reports show Visual Basic is
losing share, and most of the reports I have seen, show VB in more of a
maintenance mode. Java is increasing for new projects and those who are MS
centric will do NET. Most modern IT articles (and I not speaking here of
some MS sponsered report like many who are die hard MS fans, not any Linux
biased reports either (reports I trust are from Computer World, IT Journal,
Business Week, EWeek, Oracle and IBM Developer magazines) show that NET is
being used in those shops that are MS centric, while Java is used more for
Server Side and heterogeneous environments. Swing and SWT are also making
strong headway today for client programming, as well as NET for newer
applications, with the advent of faster mainstream processors and faster
JVMs and JITs).
Many will post against these findings and grovel concerning the predictions,
but will offer no proof to back up contrawise asertions. I do not count MS
sponsered reports nor Sun based reports, both of which would be biased.
I have not seen any non biased reports at all that predict the rise of an
alternate language becoming predominent, nor any other application
programming platform which challenges Java, C/C++, or NET, in that order.
 

Re:The future..

Of course they would need to move to a common base for an IDE that can
produce software for multiple targets. Maybe CIL (.NET) is not a bad
intermediate format for this.
-Michael
 

Re:The future..

"SiegfriedN" wrote:
Quote
Hi,

Imagin it is the year 2008.. (Even earlier?)

Gadgets are coming and they are getting smarter and can store lots of
data. Java ME and MS CF on handhelds are nearing extinction.
Most of these devices will run Symbian (fka EPOC). You'd better learn C++
and/or Java....
www.symbian.com
Quote
Desktop computers will be virtually extinct too..
I've heard that before. They would be replaced by the network computer (
Oracle/Sun thin client) almost 10 years ago...
sunsite.uakom.sk/sunworldonline/swol-03-1996/swol-03-oracle.html
www.internetwk.com/trends/061598.htm
www.findarticles.com/cf_dls/m0FOX/15_5/65859243/p1/article.jhtml?term
=
Peter
 

Re:The future..

pNichols wrote:
Quote

On where the future truly is, at least for the forseeable future anyways:

(1) Java (2) NET (3) C/C++
Yes, maybe for the next 2-3 years?
I would put C/C++/Kylix as (1) after +- 3 years. (Delphi language is
more RAD)
I believe the future lies with gadgets and they will run Linux embedded
or perhaps not embedded (should be capable). All the top gadget
producers are working on a standard see
www.techweb.com/wire/story/TWB20030701S0007
If there becomes a standard, would we still need Java or dotNet? Perhaps
on servers? Legacy hardware?
The 'gadget producers' are the best placed for the future i.m.o. This is
with whom Borland should flirt...not MS. MS will stop creating OS's,
servers, etc. They would be creating end user apps to run on these
gadgets - unless they produce their own hardware as well. Borland can
provide the compilers/ dev tools. They will have a hard time competing
with OSS tools however!
Cheers,
Siegs
 

Re:The future..

Quote
Where is dotNet? <g>
<yawn>
also: what makes you think those gadgets will be using x86s and thus
targettable with Kylix?
 

Re:The future..

Peter Agricola wrote:
Quote
>Desktop computers will be virtually extinct too..


I've heard that before. They would be replaced by the network computer (
Oracle/Sun thin client) almost 10 years ago...
True, but it's very different today. Technology has advanced remendously
since then. (Linux was also born just over 10 years ago) It is not to
say that the gadgets will always create the network, as in also
providing connectivity, although this is already wirelessly possible
today. Perhaps a combination of both, depending on the network you are
accessing. Grid computing is already a buzz word today..
Siegs
 

Re:The future..

marc hoffman wrote:
Quote
>Where is dotNet? <g>


<yawn>
heheh, Yes I was just wondering out loud.. The same applies to Java I
guess..
(I do not know enough about the future plans for dotNet to have a proper
comment). dotNet may be too late by 2008 in it's current specification.
Perhaps MS is making the dotNet framework in such a way they can quickly
convert it to run on another platform. In case Windows OS fails? Perhaps
a dotNet Desktop on a Gadget? CF and ASP.Net(dare I include) could be
engulfed by the main dotNet Framework.
Quote
also: what makes you think those gadgets will be using x86s and thus
targettable with Kylix?
The Kylix compiler has to adapt or die (Borland willing). A standard
like x86 or other may emerge once CPU and power consumption on 'gadgets'
has improved in the next few years.. Think, available software on a
platform/gadget may determine it's selling power, making your gadget
standard may be it's most valuable feature. Linux as the Kernel is
almost a given i.m.o.
If all this happens one can ask what's the point to have dotNet
Framework? Glorified DLLs to run MS applications on Gadgets?
Siegs
 

Re:The future..

"SiegfriedN"wrote:
Quote
True, but it's very different today. Technology has advanced remendously
since then.
Yes, but in a complete other direction than predicted that time. So what is
the worth of a prediction? History proved not much, especially in
IT-industry.
Quote
(Linux was also born just over 10 years ago) It is not to
say that the gadgets will always create the network, as in also
providing connectivity, although this is already wirelessly possible
today. Perhaps a combination of both, depending on the network you are
accessing.
The gadgets won't create the network. The network already exist. The gadgets
will become part of the network however. When IPv6 becomes widely used all
the cellphone/PDA/gamestation/mobile-office/entertainment-centres (we need a
shorter name for such a device<g>) will get their own IP-address so we can
get rid of the mobile operators private and thus incompatible networks.
Quote
Grid computing is already a buzz word today..
Remember what happend with all the other buzz words.
Peter
 

Re:The future..

Quote
The Kylix compiler has to adapt or die (Borland willing). A standard
like x86 or other may emerge once CPU and power consumption on 'gadgets'
has improved in the next few years..
To do this supposedly Borland will use an intermediate code created and
optimized from e.g. Delphi language and in a second step compile same do
the CPU (and OS) native code. Regarding Borland's latest moves (and
regarding that those are developed with the Delphi structures in mind)
this intermediate code will be CIL and the virtual OS will be the .NET
Framework. So we are back at "Delphi for .NET". (BTW.: "Embedded
software" (for gadgets) often is developed with cross-compiler tools. So
the IDE itself does not need to run on the gadget itself.)
-Michael
 

Re:The future..

"SiegfriedN" < XXXX@XXXXX.COM >wrote in message
Quote
A standard like x86 or other may emerge once CPU and power consumption
on 'gadgets' has improved in the next few years.. Think, available
software on
a platform/gadget may determine it's selling power, making your gadget
standard may be it's most valuable feature. Linux as the Kernel is
almost a given i.m.o.
I'm betting that any "standard" that emerges will be an application
framework.
The current contenders are .NET/Mono and Java. With the framework
available, developers and end users won't care about the gadget hardware or
the OS.
Quote
If all this happens one can ask what's the point to have dotNet
Framework? Glorified DLLs to run MS applications on Gadgets?
With the .NET/Mono framework available, one can ask what's the point to have
Java or native code<g>?
Maybe there will be primarily one framework, maybe two, maybe more. This is
all relatively far off in the future. We'll just have to wait and see what
happens.
 

Re:The future..

SiegfriedN wrote:
Quote
pNichols wrote:
>
>On where the future truly is, at least for the forseeable future anyways:
>
>(1) Java (2) NET (3) C/C++

Yes, maybe for the next 2-3 years?

I would put C/C++/Kylix as (1) after +- 3 years. (Delphi language is
more RAD)

I believe the future lies with gadgets and they will run Linux embedded
or perhaps not embedded (should be capable). All the top gadget
producers are working on a standard see
www.techweb.com/wire/story/TWB20030701S0007
If there becomes a standard, would we still need Java or dotNet? Perhaps
on servers? Legacy hardware?
It is certainly true that embedded devices will be an important part of the
IT structure, but Java and NET are positioning themselves for that market
as well. I would definitely give Java the nod here, as they are better
positioned (xplatform and j2ME has improved dramaticlly), and C++. I think
Borland is pursuing the right course with Builder X. They have lost their
dominence in the Java IDE field (it is hard to compete with free, though
JBuilder is still the best IDE right now), so new markets are in order.
Actually Borland has little choice but to go to NET. If they want to keep
their Windows customer base, they have to do NET. Without that customer
base, their business would change dramatically! The Windows base accounts
for over 30% of their market (or has in the past). Java accounts for over
55% of their market (including App Servers, support, etc. or has in the
recent past).
I like Delphi and I like Kylix concept. But we all have to be realistic.
Please understand that I am not a fan of MS.NET at all. I see it as nothing
more than MS' Platform specific Java;-- more of a J++ iteration 2. But I do
not see any evidence whatsoever, of anything on the horizon now, toppling
either Java or NET. C/C++ will always be around, since though maybe not as
pretty as a more strongly typed language, C/C++ are ideal for low level
programming.